With the bombshell news of Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement, it’s about time to post another edition of our ongoing House Open Seat Watch series. Much has changed since our last installment in this series back in August. The list of House retirements has swelled with the addition of Reps. Renzi, Pickering, Pryce, Hastert, and, of course, Ramstad. We’ve also had to scratch one retirement, as Illinois Democrat Luís Gutiérrez has withdrawn his resignation.
Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Renzi | R | R+2.2 | 50 | Will resign |
| CA-52 | Hunter | R | R+9.3 | 60 | Running for President |
| CO-02 | Udall | D | D+8.1 | 58 | Running for Senate |
| IL-14 | Hastert | R | R+4.8 | 67 | Retiring |
| IL-18 | LaHood | R | R+5.5 | 62 | Retiring |
| ME-01 | Allen | D | D+6.2 | 63 | Running for Senate |
| MN-03 | Ramstad | R | R+0.5 | 62 | Retiring |
| MS-03 | Pickering | R | R+14.1 | 45 | Retiring |
| OH-15 | Pryce | R | R+1.1 | 57 | Retiring |
Ramstad’s retirement is a serious blow to House Republicans, who now have to deal with several open seats in politically competitive terrain that could easily fall to strong Democratic challengers. Personally popular, Ramstad enjoyed robust margins of victory in a district that Bush won by only four and three point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Add to that the likely vacancy left behind by GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia as he attempts to block former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner’s ascendancy to the Senate, and Republicans are facing a burgeoning amount of marginal seats without incumbents in 2008. Retaking the House is looking harder and harder with every retirement for the NRCC.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Young | R | R+14.3 | 75 | Under investigation |
| AL-02 | Everett | R | R+13.2 | 72 | Speculation/Rumors |
| CA-04 | Doolittle | R | R+10.9 | 58 | Under investigation |
| CA-24 | Gallegly | R | R+4.8 | 64 | Botched a retirement attempt in 2006 |
| CA-25 | McKeon | R | R+7.1 | 70 | Speculation |
| CA-41 | Lewis | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Under investigation |
| CT-04 | Shays | R | D+5.4 | 63 | Threatening retirement |
| DE-AL | Castle | R | D+6.5 | 69 | Health issues |
| FL-10 | Young | R | D+1.1 | 78 | Age issues/Speculation |
| IL-03 | Lipinski | D | D+10.3 | 42 | Primary challenge |
| IL-16 | Manzullo | R | R+4.5 | 64 | Speculation |
| IA-03 | Boswell | D | D+1.4 | 74 | Health issues |
| IA-04 | Latham | R | D+0.4 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
| IA-05 | King | R | R+8.4 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
| LA-01 | Jindal | R | R+18.5 | 37 | Running for Governor |
| LA-02 | Jefferson | D | D+27.8 | 61 | Indicted |
| MD-01 | Gilchrest | R | R+9.8 | 62 | Primary challenge |
| MD-04 | Wynn | D | D+29.8 | 57 | Primary challenge |
| MD-06 | Bartlett | R | R+12.8 | 82 | Age issues |
| MI-03 | Ehlers | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Speculation |
| NC-09 | Myrick | R | R+12.2 | 67 | Speculation |
| NJ-03 | Saxton | R | D+3.3 | 60 | Speculation |
| NY-23 | McHugh | R | R+0.2 | 60 | Speculation |
| OH-02 | Schmidt | R | R+13.1 | 56 | Primary challenge |
| OH-07 | Hobson | R | R+6.0 | 56 | Rumors |
| OH-16 | Regula | R | R+3.6 | 84 | Age issues/Speculation |
| TN-09 | Cohen | D | D+18.1 | 59 | Primary challenge |
| TX-04 | Hall | R | R+17.1 | 85 | Age issues |
| VA-01 | Davis, JoAnn | R | R+8.9 | 58 | Rumors/Health issues |
| VA-11 | Davis | R | R+0.6 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
| WY-AL | Cubin | R | R+19.4 | 61 | Speculation |
Not many changes here: Chrissy Shays (R-CT) is in, and despite his vow to run again, Jerry Lewis (R-CA) is staying on (you never know when an indictment will drop). It’s well worth mentioning, however, that several of the most recent retirements (Pryce, Pickering, and Ramstad) were genuine surprises and were not found on the previous list of potential retirements. We will very likely be surprised again in the coming days, weeks, and months.
Any other retirement rumors floating through your tubes?
What about Ken Calvert? You could list him as “Failed right-wing blog ‘scalp’ attempt,” with the hope that they might actually take him out at some point lat… okay, enough with the jokes. But if he winds up under investigation, too, then who knows?
Cubin should be regarded as “potential primary challenge,” ala Schmitty. I think you have to consider both ID-01 and ID-02 as potential senate runs.
Here’s a Gallegly link.
With Schauer now in the race, is there any chance that Schwarz figures his best way back in the game (should he want back in) would be to primary Walberg? Any Prairie Staters want to chime in on this unlikely theory of mine?
Cook lists a few dudes not on this list.
#1 – if Jindal is elected Governor, expect a special election by March 2008
#2 – Cubin has missed a lot of votes so far, and if she runs, she will probably lose a primary
Hastert’s district leans Dem? Should I be shocked? Or is that a typo?
Carson is a notable drop from this list.
It’s tough to say what Joe Schwarz might do. The one reason I at least respected him as a Republican (and even liked him, from time to time) was that he’s really his own man. He’s an independent thinker and can surprise people a lot of the time.
That said, I don’t think he’ll run for Congress, and I don’t think he’d do it in a GOP primary challenge if he did. I’ve got no super-secret information to back that up, it’s just a gut feeling. I think he knows that with Jim Berryman in the race (an old friend) and Mark Schauer in the race (also a friend, as I understand it), he’ll be heavily courted by both of them, and if either is the nominee, he’ll probably be an active campaigner against Walberg. But I don’t think he’ll run for public office again.
Of course, I was absolutely certain a few months ago that Mark Schauer was waiting until 2010 to run for governor. So I’m wrong a lot.
Supposing he did run in the GOP primary, I’m not sure how he’d win it. Walberg would have the party machinery and the Club for Growth on his side, while Schwarz would only have whatever coalition he could put together on his own. Moderate Republicans just didn’t get out and vote in the last primary, and I don’t know what he could do to make it work this time. He can’t count on cross-over Democrats if the Schauer-Berryman-Renier race heats up.
The only path to victory that I see would be if there were another GOP primary challenger, too, who would challenge from the right and split that base. But how do you find someone to the right of Tim Walberg?
(On a similar note, respected Michigan journalist Jack Lessenberry interviewed Schwarz not to long ago about the possibility of switching parties. In his essay afterwards, he basically said that Schwarz would do better staying in the GOP and trying to fix the party from within. I haven’t got any idea whether Schwarz puts any weight on Lessenberry’s words, but it’s interesting.)
Chris Shays’ chief of staff is now saying he didn’t threaten to retire, and blaming the press for reporting it.
More at MLN.
Although Jerry Weller has not shown any previous indication of retirement, recent bombshell developments about his unethical behavior- two articles in the Chicago Tribune and one article rating him amongst the “22 most corrupt members of Congress”- and his curious silence thereafter might hint at a retirement for Weller. IL-11 has a PVI of R+1 so its a pure swing district.
Tancredo might decide he’s better off (financially as well as ego-wise) being an immigration gadfly and talking head than he is as one out of 435 members of Congress. Lamborn has raised nothing and is looking at getting crushed in a primary. Very good chances he quits. Neither one, sadly, would produce a serious chance for a Democrat.
It just occured to me how visually enriched this table could be if you made the D for Democrat blue and the R for Republican red, to make it easier to see, and it would point out when Republicans are in Democratic Districts and vise versa.